Matchup edge
Form edge: New York Yankees, 4-1 in the last 5 games against 2-3 for Tampa Bay Rays.
Matchup to watch: New York Yankees’ attack (index 102) against Tampa Bay Rays’ defence (index 90).
Matchup to watch: Tampa Bay Rays’ attack (index 101) against New York Yankees’ defence (index 83).
Recent form: last 5
New York Yankees: 4 wins and 1 loss in the last 5, with 32 runs scored and 19 conceded.
| Sep 30, 2026 | vs Boston Red Sox | W | 9–2 |
| Sep 29, 2026 | vs Boston Red Sox | W | 9–0 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Baltimore Orioles | W | 6–3 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | vs Baltimore Orioles | L | 2–10 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | vs Tampa Bay Rays | W | 6–4 |
Tampa Bay Rays: 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5, with 23 runs scored and 23 conceded.
| Sep 27, 2026 | at Philadelphia Phillies | L | 3–7 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | at Philadelphia Phillies | W | 12–1 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | at Philadelphia Phillies | W | 2–0 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | at New York Yankees | L | 4–6 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | at New York Yankees | L | 2–9 |
Results before kickoff, newest first.
Head-to-head
In the last 5 meetings on record, New York Yankees won 4, Tampa Bay Rays won 1.
| Sep 24, 2026 | New York Yankees | 6–4 | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Sep 23, 2026 | New York Yankees | 9–2 | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Sep 22, 2026 | New York Yankees | 1–6 | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Sep 22, 2026 | New York Yankees | 2–0 | Tampa Bay Rays |
| Jul 9, 2026 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4–12 | New York Yankees |
Season so far
New York Yankees are 5th of 30 on win rate after 161 games (93-68).
Tampa Bay Rays are 3rd of 30 on win rate after 162 games (98-64).
| # | Team | P | W | L | Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | New York Yankees | 161 | 93 | 68 | 739:601 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 162 | 98 | 64 | 736:650 |
Team season model
- New York Yankees attack index 102: 2% more scoring per game than the league average.
- New York Yankees defence index 83: 17% less conceded per game than the league average.
- New York Yankees rate 4th of 30 on results-based strength, rising over their last 5 games.
- Tampa Bay Rays attack index 101: 1% more scoring per game than the league average.
- Tampa Bay Rays defence index 90: 10% less conceded per game than the league average.
- Tampa Bay Rays rate 5th of 30 on results-based strength, steady over their last 5 games.
Index 100 is the league average per game. Above 100 in attack means more scoring; below 100 in defence means fewer conceded.
Team news
New York Yankees
- Aaron Judge left off of Yankees' ALDS roster vs. Rays: Three-time MVP still recovering from calf injury — Judge has been on the injured list since Sept. 16 and missed New York's two-game Wild Card Series sweep over the Red Sox (CBS Sports, Oct 3, 2026)
- Aaron Judge (RF): 10-Day-IL, right calf. Judge (calf) isn't on the Yankees' roster for their American League Division Series against the Rays, Jack Curry of YES Network reports. (ESPN, Oct 3, 2026)
Tampa Bay Rays
- Aaron Judge left off of Yankees' ALDS roster vs. Rays: Three-time MVP still recovering from calf injury — Judge has been on the injured list since Sept. 16 and missed New York's two-game Wild Card Series sweep over the Red Sox (CBS Sports, Oct 3, 2026)
- Shane McClanahan (SP): Out, left forearm. Manager Kevin Cash said Wednesday that McClanahan (forearm) will not be included on the Rays' ALDS roster, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. (ESPN, Oct 2, 2026)
Headlines gathered October 3, 2026 from the outlets named. Third-party reporting, not verified by SportAnalyst.
What the full preview covers
- Key factors: the matchups and numbers that shape this game.
- Player form: recent output from the players who matter most.
- Team news: injuries and availability from the latest reports.
- Analyst chat: ask follow-up questions about this game (All-Access).
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